Core Data Recap (Jun vs Jul 2026)
|Instrument|Jun Avg|Jul Avg|% Change|
|LME Ni (USD/ton)|18,404|17,612|-4.30%|
|SHFE Ni (CNY/ton)|143,378|138,265|-3.57%|
|DXY|100.01|102.35|+2.25%|
Soaring US dollar and rising nickel supply pushed nickel prices lower in July. LME nickel fell more sharply than SHFE nickel, while hawkish Fed remarks lifted DXY by 2.25% month-on-month.
Four Key Drivers
1. Strong DXY weighs on all dollar-priced metals
Fed officials’ hawkish remarks boosted the US dollar, creating sustained valuation pressure on industrial metals and cooling commodity risk sentiment.
2. LME nickel bearishness from surging Indonesian supply
Indonesia’s smelter output expanded steadily, lifting supply expectations. Overseas stainless steel demand recovered sluggishly, and eased geopolitics removed nickel’s safe-haven demand, dragging LME prices down.
3. Weak seasonal demand caps domestic SHFE nickel
China’s stainless steel sector entered summer off-season. Downstream factories only bought spot goods for rigid demand without bulk restocks. Sluggish end consumption, RMB depreciation and arbitrage outflows widened the onshore-offshore price gap.
4. Sticky US inflation supports a strong dollar
Persistent core US inflation erased market bets on 2026 rate cuts. Risk-off capital flowed into USD assets, pressuring nickel prices all month long.
